Bezrobocie a wyniki wyborów w Polsce
Więcej
Ukryj
1
Akademia Ekonomiczna w Krakowie
Data publikacji: 28-01-2020
Studia Politologiczne 2002;6
STRESZCZENIE
A quantitative analysis of the influence of unemployment on the results
of parliamentary and presidential election in Poland (1993–2001) is presented
in the paper. The statistical data on province level is used. Election results
were published by the State Election Committee, and the unemployment
rate was taken from the Central Statistical Office publications. For the
parliamentary election only the lower chamber (Sejm) results were considered.
Presidential election results are analyzed on the basis of the first round.
Correlation and regression analysis were used in the statistical analysis.
The coefficient of the relative importance has been proposed. The significance
of relations has been tested with proper statistical tests.
It has been found that the unemployment was an important factor
which influenced the election results within analyzed period. Generally
speaking, left-wing parties and candidates, are those who “gained” from the
unemployment while the right-wingers appeared to be the losers. A special
„historical” mentality can be one of the reasons. People have the tendency
to remember rather good things from the socialist past, like full employment
and social security (not counting their actual level). These thoughts are
transfer to the favor of political groups connected with the past. There was
no evidence that being a ruling party is better (or worse) that being an
opposition, as far as the influence of unemployment is concerned. Maybe
there is another (latent) factor which influences both unemployment and
election results giving artificial correlations.
Observed symptoms of non-linear relation between unemployment and
SLD popularity, in case of growing unemployment can result in shifting
more votes toward “new” populist left-wingers.